Musings
Below is a semi-regular series of posts related to news, politics, business, economics, myself, and anything else I find interesting at the time.
What Drives The Stock Market?
Most investors know that over a long period of time, the stocks that they own will either increase or decrease in value based on the success or failure of the underlying business. Most investors also know that in the short term, there can be wild gyrations in stock prices that can lead to purchasing a stock above or below its fair value. The combination of a predictable long-term outlook for stocks and not being able to time short-term gyrations makes being a long-term investor much easier than a short-term investor. But it also raises the question – what causes all of the short-term moves in the first place? Why is it that in the next year or two, Apple’s stock performance depends on how they do as a company, but in the next month or two, Apple’s stock may rise or fall with almost no news at all? As an investor, it is important to understand the reasoning behind these short-term movements. After all, if you understand what is driving short-term movements while keeping a focus on the longer-term fundamentals, you can set yourself up to buy great companies at bargain prices. Below are a few key components to understanding ...
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Talking Tariffs
The talk of the town in recent days has been “Tariffs.” President Trump loves them and has wasted no time threatening them during his first few weeks back in office. So far he has: Threatened a 25% tariff on Columbia for not accepting deportees. Threatened a 25% tariff on Canada for not better protecting their border with the US (delayed for 30 days) Threatened a 25% tariff on Mexico for not better protecting their border with the US (delayed for 30 days) Added a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods coming into the US And that’s all within the roughly 2.5 weeks he has been in office. Impacts of Tariffs: Contrary to much of the back and forth that you see on websites such as x.com, tariffs are not likely to lower the price of US goods. Below are a few first and second-order effects of how tariffs will ultimately play out throughout the economy. Tariffs Will Realign Supply Chains The thought that tariffs will create domestic production is not necessarily guaranteed. Let’s assume that a 25% tariff was enacted on all goods coming from Canada (as it was threatened). The purchasers of those goods (companies or individuals) will immediately ...
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My Inspiration: Great Blogs and Other Things I Enjoy
Inspiration can be found everywhere if you’re looking intentionally. Many times for me it comes from things that I’ve come across and admire, people I look up to, things I’ve read, or simply seeing people persevere through challenges and coming through to the other side. Not all of the below fit those specific bills, but some of them certainly do. I plan to use this post as a living document. I will be updating it regularly with new blogs, articles, YouTubes, and other things that I enjoy. Below is a list of blogs, YouTube Channels, and other resources that I frequent today. Things to Read: Doomberg Seth Godin TG Macro Lyn Alden The Economist Wall Street Journal Andrew Lynch I Will Teach You To Be Rich Of Dollars and Data Things to Watch: Accounting Stuff Random/other: TBD I’m also always open to suggestions. If you’ve got one, email me, leave a message below, carrier pigeon, whatever. I’ll be happy to check it out.
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A Little Bit About Me
Hey hey, I’m Bret! I’m an economist by education, a commodity trader by profession, a financial analyst by hobby, a poor writer trying to improve, and a wannabe blogger. When I’m not doing any of the things mentioned above I enjoy neat bourbon, black coffee, Miller Lite, fishing, and spending time with my family. (wow, that sounds like a redneck Tinder intro – my wife sure is lucky!) On this blog, you’ll find stories and posts related to economics, business, trading, and just about everything in between. There will likely also be the occasional random post about something completely unrelated. I tend to bounce around from subject to subject like my son moves from one thing to the next. Over the years, I have: Earned a Master’s degree in Economics because I didn’t like any job I was offered out of undergrad Build a social media platform with ~60k followers in 2015 – before influencers were really a thing… I got bored with it and stopped posting around 2017. Still have the accounts though. Backcountry Junkie… check them out. Learned how to build websites in my spare time thinking it would provide freedom. It has to some extent – I ...
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